Housing Analysis Archives - Page 3 of 3

9 09, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 9, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 9, 2013 Last week was relatively calm due to the Labor Day Holiday on Monday providing little mortgage and housing related news. However, there were several positive indicators for overall economic conditions.

Construction spending rose by 0.60 percent in July and surpassed economists’ expectations of 0.30 percent and June’s zero percent growth. While this may seem a small increase, any indication that construction spending is increasing could indicate that residential construction is ramping up.

This would be good news for home buyers, who’ve been facing a shortage of available homes in many areas of the U.S.

The Fed Released Its Latest Beige Book Report

Federal Reserve districts reported rising consumer spending in most districts, modest expansion in manufacturing and moderate residential real estate sales. Higher mortgage rates may have dampened home buyer enthusiasm, but an ongoing shortage of available homes is also likely to have contributed to slower sales.

Mortgage rates will likely rise if the Fed tapers its $85 billion monthly purchase of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds as demand for bonds is expected to decrease. When bond prices fall, mortgage rates usually rise.

ADP released its report on private sector jobs added for August; 176,000 jobs were added against expectations of 185,000 jobs added and July’s 198,000 jobs added. The three-month rolling average of private sector jobs added shows steady job growth as jobs added rose from 140,000 in May to 188,000 jobs for August.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by six basis points to 4.57 percent with discount points unchanged at 9.70 percent.

The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose by five basis points to 3.59 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose by four basis points to 3.28 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls Report for August, 169,000 jobs were created, which fell shy of expectations of 173,000 new jobs. Expectations were based on the original number of 162,000 jobs created in July, but July’s number was revised downward to 104,000 jobs created.

The unemployment report for August was 7.30 percent, down 0.10 percent from July’s reading of 7.40 percent.

The combination of higher mortgage rates, persistently high unemployment and fewer jobs created could signal the Fed to postpone its plan to start reducing its monthly securities purchases.

What’s Coming Up

This week’s scheduled mortgage and housing news is relatively flat, but Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey will provide the last indication of mortgage rates’ direction before the FOMC meeting on September 18.

The Fed will also likely be watching the Weekly Jobs report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index as part of its decision-making process on whether to taper or maintain current QE securities purchases.

26 08, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 26, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week- August 26, 2013 Last week brought mixed economic news, but Leading Indicators released Thursday suggest that the U.S. economy is growing at a moderate rate.

Mortgage rates for fixed rate loans were higher, but the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged from the prior week. Weekly jobless claims were also higher.

The National Association of REALTORS released its Existing Home Sales report for July and reported existing home sales came in at 5.39 million on an annualized basis.

This reading surpassed expectations of 5.21 existing homes sold as well as June’s reading of 5.06 million existing homes sold on an annualized basis.

FOMC Minutes Released, Mortgage Rates Rise

The minutes for the July 31 FOMC meeting were released, and emphasized the likely “tapering” of the Fed’s quantitative easing program possibly as early as September, though no dates have been set. Many of the FOMC members support reducing the $85 billion in monthly securities purchases made by the Fed; fewer members supported tapering the asset purchases sooner than planned.

Previous announcements by the Fed regarding its plan to reduce QE have created erratic responses in financial markets, but the release of the meeting minutes seemed to cause a sharp rise in mortgage rates.

Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved from the prior week’s average rate of 4.40 percent to 4.58 percent; average discount points moved up from 0.70 to 0.80 percent. Average rates for a 15 year fixed-rate mortgage also rose from 3.44 percent to 3.60 percent with average discount points moving from 0.60 to 0.70 percent.

Average rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage were unchanged from the previous week at 3.21 percent with average discount points paid at 0.50 percent.

FHFA reported that home prices for homes with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 7.70 percent year-over-year in June, home prices rose slightly from May’s year-over-year- rate of 7.60 percent.

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July rose by 0.60 to a reading of 96.0; this exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.50 percent. The LEI measures the health of the economy by measuring 10 top economic sectors; eight of 10 factors measured increased; these were led by the spread on interest rates, availability of credit, stock prices and permits issued for building new homes.

New home sales for July were lower than expected at 394,000; Wall Street expected new home sales to come in at 485,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis against the revised number of 455,000 new home sales reported for June. 497,000 homes were initially reported sold in June. Hew home sales gained by 6.80 percent year-over-year in July.

What’s Coming Up

Scheduled economic news for this week includes the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Pending Home Sales will be out Wednesday. Thursday brings Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday brings consumer spending and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report.

20 08, 2013

Home Builder Confidence Highest Level In Nearly 8 Years

Home Builder Confidence Highest Level In Nearly 8 Years The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Thursday that its Housing Market Index rose three points to a reading of 59 for August.

Confidence among builders is likely growing in connection with stronger housing markets and high demand for homes. These conditions are being driven by short supplies of homes for sale in many markets.

Builder confidence in current market conditions rose by three points to a reading of 62, while builder confidence in market conditions within the next six months rose by one point to a reading of 68. Confidence in buyer foot traffic was unchanged from July’s reading of 45.

Readings above 50 indicate that more builders surveyed view housing market conditions as positive rather than negative; there was some concern that the high builders’ confidence reading could trigger the Fed to announce the tapering of its $85 billion monthly purchase of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.

Housing Starts Driven By Apartment Construction

Housing starts rose in July, but were led by the volatile apartment sector rather than single- family homes.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported 896,000 housing starts on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. This reading fell short of expectations of 915,000 housing starts, but exceeded June’s reading of 846,000 housing starts.

Starts for residential buildings with five or more units rose by 20.90 percent year-over-year while construction of one of one-to-four family residential buildings fell by 2.20 percent. Demand for rental properties and a shortage of available single family homes was seen by economists as contributing to increasing multi-family housing construction.

Analysts said that some home builders may be holding back on single-family home construction due to increasing materials and labor costs, but this doesn’t reflect the record level of builder confidence reported in the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Building homes at less than optimum capacity isn’t good news for the shortage of available single-family homes. Rising mortgage rates are also a concern for home builders, as fewer borrowers may be able to qualify for mortgage loans needed for financing home purchases.

Building permits numbers were also released on Friday, and presented a more positive picture than housing starts. July’s reading for building permits issued rose by 2.70 percent in July to an annual reading of 943,000 permits against expectations of 953,000 permits issued and exceeded June’s reading of 918,000.

Building permits issued provide an indication of future housing starts.

19 08, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 19, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week- August 19, 2013 Last week wasn’t kind to stock market investors, but weekly jobless claims fell to an unexpected low of 320,000 new jobless claims filed, the lowest level in nearly six years.

Here is a review of the major events of the week.

Monday: The federal budget for July shows an increase in its deficit to -$98 billion, a deficit increase of $28 billion over June’s figure of -$70 billion. The good news is that the deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year is $38 billion less than during the same period of the prior fiscal year.

Thursday: Thursday was a busy day for economic news. The weekly jobless claims report came in lower than expected with 320,000 new jobless claims filed. This was lower than the expected.

While this is a strong sign for the economy that would typically boost stock prices, the markets fell. Analysts cite a good news/bad news scenario in describing what happened. The good news was that jobless claims fell to a new low, but the bad news is that investors feared that this may give the Fed a signal to begin tapering its quantitative easing (QE) program.

The Fed is expected to begin tapering its monthly purchases of $85 billion in treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities as early as next month. The QE purchases are intended to help hold down long term interest rates including mortgage rates.

The fall in stock prices on Thursday and Friday suggested that fear of the Fed ending QE is more compelling than the lowest number of new jobless claims since October 2007.

Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage remained unchanged at 4.40 percent with 0.7 percent in discount points. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage ticked upward by one basis point from 3.43 to 3.44 percent.

Discount points fell from 0.70 percent the prior week to 0.60 percent last week.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rose from 3.19 to 3.23 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent. The 5/1 ARM provides an alternative to higher fixed rates for borrowers seeking lower mortgage rates and payments.

Friday: Included Housing Starts for July, which came in at 896,000 as compared to expectations of 915, 00 0 and June’s figure of 846,000 housing starts. Building permits issued in July came in at 943,000, and surpassed June’s reading of 918,000 building permits.

Increasing home values, buyer demand and a short supply of available homes were seen as motivating factors for builders to construct more homes.

Looking Ahead

This week’s schedule of economic news is set to include the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index on Tuesday. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday along with Existing Home Sales.

Thursday will bring Weekly Jobless Claims, Freddie Mac’s survey of mortgage rates and the FHFA home price index. Friday will finish the week with a New Home Sales report.

12 08, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 12, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 12, 2013 Highlights of economic news from last week, include a survey of senior loan officers from U.S. and foreign banks doing business in the U.S.

They indicated that banks were gradually easing lending standards for business and consumer loans, but viewed lending criteria for home loans as more restrictive than other types of loans.

According to CoreLogic, U.S. home prices increased at their fastest pace since February 2006. Mortgage rates rose incrementally, and the Weekly Jobless Claims report came in lower than the expected 339,000 at 333,000 new jobless claims.

Monday: Bank loan officers surveyed indicated that while mortgage lending requirements have been eased for low risk mortgage loans, it remains challenging for those with less-than-stellar credit to qualify for home loans.

Bankers noted some concern that easing credit standards may signal to the Fed that it’s time to taper the quantitative easing program that’s designed to keep long term interest rates, including mortgage rates, low.

Tuesday: The CoreLogic Home Prices report for June showed that home prices rose 1.90 percent in June, and rose by 11.88 percent year-over-year. 48 states showed rising home prices while only Mississippi and Delaware showed a decline.

Nevada led the list of higher home prices with a 27.00 percent gain year-over-year; Nevada home values were among the hardest-hit in the economic downturn.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 333,000, which were higher than last week’s reading of 328,000 new jobless claims. The four-week average is considered a less volatile indicator of unemployment trends.

The four week rolling average for new jobless claims decreased by 6250 to 335,000. This was the lowest reading for the four-week rolling average since November 2007.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates brought not-so-good news; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.40 percent, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 3.43 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose by one basis point to 3.19 percent.

Discount points for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 15-year fixed rate mortgages were unchanged at 0.7 percent, while average discount points for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped to 0.5 percent.

What’s Coming Up

This week’s economic news includes the federal budget for Monday. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be reported on Tuesday; the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI will be out on Wednesday.

Thursday’s news includes weekly jobless claims and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates update. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy sectors) will also be released. The NAHB Home Builders Housing Market Index (HMI) is also due Thursday.

Friday’s scheduled economic news includes Housing Starts, Building Permits and Consumer Sentiment for July.

5 08, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week- August 5, 2013

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week August 5 2013 The past week brought encouraging economic news from several sources.

The FOMC statement indicated that the Federal Reserve has not set a date for rolling back its quantitative easing program and ADP reported more private sector jobs added than expected.

While weekly jobless claims were fewer than expected, the national unemployment rate remained elevated:

Monday: Pending Home Sales: The National Association of REALTORS reported that sales contracts fell in June due to rising mortgage rates and a tight inventory of available homes.

Tuesday: The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed that national home prices increased by 12.2 percent annually.

All 20 cities used in the 10 and 20 city home price indices posted gains in average home prices. Average U.S. home prices remained approximately 25 percent below their peak in 2006.

Consumer confidence dropped in July to a reading of 80.3 as compared to a revised reading of 82.1 in June. Higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high unemployment rates likely contributed to a cooling of consumer enthusiasm.

Wednesday: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said in its statement that based on its reading of current economic conditions,the committee had not set a date for beginning to reduce the Fed’s monthly asset purchase of $85 billion in Treasury securities and MBS.

The program, known as quantitative easing (QE), is intended to keep long-term interest rates including mortgage rates lower.

ADP reported that job growth for private-sector jobs exceeded expectations for July; the adjusted reading of 200,000 for July beat expectations of 185,000 jobs added and also surpassed June’s reading of 198,000 new jobs added.

The ADP jobs report is viewed by economists as a preview of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Non-farm Payrolls and National Unemployment reports, which are collectively known as the “Jobs Report.”

Thursday: Weekly jobless claims came in at 326,000. This was lower than expectations and the previous week’s reading, both of which were reported at 345,000 jobless claims.

Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates rose, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage coming in at 4.39 percent as compared to last week’s 4.31 percent.

Average rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage came in at 3.43 percent over last week’s 3.39 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was 3.18 percent and two basis points higher than the previous week’s 3.16 percent.

Friday: The July Non-farm Payrolls report showed that only 162,000 jobs were added as compared to expectations of 180,000 jobs added and June’s reading of 188,000 jobs added. While housing markets are showing strong improvement, high unemployment continues to be a drag on the economy.

The national unemployment rate for July was 7.40 percent and was lower than expectations of 7.50 percent and June’s reading of 7.60 percent.

What’s Coming Up This Week

This week’s economic news includes the Senior Loan Officer Survey set for Monday, the U.S. Trade Deficit and Job Openings reports for June on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a report on Consumer Credit will be released and the Weekly Jobless Claims will be out Thursday, along with Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates report. No mortgage or related news is scheduled for Friday.

18 07, 2013

Home Builder Confidence Rises To Highest Level Since January 2006

Home Builder Confidence Rises To Highest Level Since January 2006 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose in July.

Home builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose six points to a reading of 57. NAHB reports that this was the third consecutive rise in the HMI and its highest reading since January 2006.

Three components used in compiling the HMI reading include current sales, which gained five points for a reading of 60. Confidence in prospective buyer traffic rose from 40 to 45, and sales expectations for the next six months rose from a reading of 60 to 67.

HMI: All Regions Post Gains

Regional data reflected gains in builder confidence for all U.S. geographic regions. Regional data is based on a three-month rolling average of builder confidence in each region.

The Northeast gained four points for a reading of 40; the Midwest gained eight points for a reading of 54. The South gained five points for a reading of 50, and the West gained three points for a reading of 51.

Readings of more than 50 indicate that more builders view conditions as good than poor. NAHB Economist David Crowe indicated that growing confidence is driven by factors including lower prices for building materials and more buyers vying for fewer available homes. A shortage of building space and available existing homes is improving markets for new homes.

Housing Starts Decline In June

In spite of growing home builder confidence, housing starts for June fell to their lowest level in nearly a year. Regional weather conditions contributed to the dip in housing starts, which surpassed June 2012 housing starts by 10.40 percent.

June’s housing starts fell to 836,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual rate, and fell shy of economist’s expectation of 950,000 housing starts. Expectations were based on May’s original tally of 914,000 housing starts, which was revised upward to 928,000 on Wednesday.

Building permits for single family homes moved up by 0.60 percent to a rate of 624,000; this is the highest rate since May, 2008. A significant backlog of unused permits contributed to June’s lower number of building permits issued.

Economists are confident that the housing market continues its recovery, but may face obstacles if the government changes the mortgage interest tax deduction.

Another concern involves the pending “tapering” of the Fed’s quantitative easing program (QE). The QE program, which involves the Fed’s purchase of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) was designed to support mortgage markets and also helps to keep mortgage rates low.

For specific details on local home building activity , please contact your trusted mortgage professional today.

15 07, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 15, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates July 15 2013 The Fed’s release of the minutes for the June FOMC meeting was the most noteworthy economic event last week; the minutes repeated the Fed’s recent statement concerning the wind-down of its current monetary easing policy.

The minutes indicated that about half of meeting participants wanted to end the quantitative easing (QE) policy by year end, while “many others” preferred to end the program in 2014.

This split suggests that days are numbered for the Fed’s monthly purchase of $85 billion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The minutes also revealed that the Fed would not be selling off MBS as QE is ended. This would likely prevent additional potential for mortgage rates to increase as demand for bonds would decline when the Fed stops its monthly purchases.

Mortgage Rates Typically Rise When Bond And MBS Prices Fall

U.S. financial markets showed little reaction to the Fed minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a quick gain of about 40 points that quickly retreated. The Wall Street Journal interprets the lackluster response to the Fed minutes as investors growing accustomed to the eventual end of the QE program; it’s also possible that the markets interpreted the FOMC minutes as “old news,” as the minutes contained information included in the Fed statement given after June’s FOMC meeting.

The FOMC minutes reported that details of tapering the QE program will be given by Chairman Ben Bernanke during his customary press conference after the Fed presents the FOMC meeting statement. The minutes also asserted that the Fed will closely monitor economic and financial developments as part of their decision-making for ending QE.

The minutes stated that the current Federal Funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent will remain in place for some time after QE is ended.

Mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved to 4.51 percent from last week’s 4.29 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 3.53 percent from 3.39 percent. Discount points for both types of loans rose from 0.70 percent to 0.80 percent.

Rising mortgage rates suggest that borrowers may soon return to adjustable rate mortgages or hybrids such as the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage, which was reported at an average rate of 3.26 percent with discount points of 0.70 percent.

What’s Coming Up

On Monday, retail sales for June will be released. This is an important indicator for the general economy. Tuesday’s news includes NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July.

On Wednesday, Housing Starts for June will be released. Thursday’s news includes weekly Jobless Claims and Leading Economic Indicators. No economic news is scheduled for Friday.

8 07, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 8, 2013

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week July 8 2013 Last week saw a relatively quiet week due to the 4th of July holiday, but there were some housing-related developments:

Monday: The Department of Commerce reported that overall construction spending increased by 0.50 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $874.9 billion. Residential construction grew by 1.20 percent, and May 2012 construction spending was 5.40 percent higher than in May 2012.

More spending in residential construction can indicate builder confidence in housing markets; added construction could help ease low inventories of available homes.

Tuesday: CoreLogic reported that May national home prices increased by 12.20 percent over May 2012, and grew by 2.60 percent in May including sales of distressed properties. Excluding distressed properties, home sales rose by 2.30 percent in May for a year-over-year increase of 11.60 percent.

States hardest hit in the economic downturn are showing good recovery; Nevada home prices rose by 26 percent year-over-year. While double-digit increases in home prices are good news, economists note that home prices remain approximately 20 percent below their peak in 2006.

Employment Data: More Jobs, Less Unemployment

Employment data are important for housing markets; employment is closely tied to home buyers’ ability to qualify for mortgage loans. Last week ended with several important jobs related reports:

Wednesday: ADP reported that 188,000 private-sector jobs were added in June for the highest increase in four months. This number surpassed expectations of 160,000 new jobs and May’s revised figure of 134,000 jobs added.

Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates survey had some good news as average rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 4.46 percent to 4.29 percent with discount points also falling from 0.80 to 0.70 percent. Average rates for a 15-year mortgage fell from 3.50 percent to 3.39 percent, with discount points moving from 0.80 percent to 0.70percent.

Friday: The Labor Department released Non-farm Payrolls and the national Unemployment Rate for June. Non-farm matched May’s level of 195,000 jobs added, which surpassed expectations of 155,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate remains at 7.60 percent, just over expectations of 7.50 percent.

The Federal Reserve has cited a benchmark unemployment rate of 6.50 percent as a criterion for raising the federal funds rate and reducing its current quantitative easing policy; this news may help slow mortgage rates as the Fed isn’t likely to modify its programs based on the current unemployment rate.

Looking Ahead

This week’s economic news includes today’s report on consumer credit. Tuesday brings Job Openings for May, and Wednesday brings the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. The minutes should clarify exactly what the committee discussed concerning quantitative easing and their plans for modifying it.

Thursday, Freddie Mac will release weekly mortgage rates. The federal government will release weekly jobless claims and will update the federal budget. The week’s economic news will conclude with release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI for June, along with Consumer Sentiment for July.

17 06, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 17, 2013

What's Ahead This Week - June 17, 2013 Last week’s news was relatively quiet with no data significant to the mortgage lending released until Wednesday, when the federal government announced a $138 billion budget deficit for May.

According to the U.S. Treasury this figure is 11 percent higher than for May of 2012, but the federal budget is expected to come in with less than a -$1 trillion deficit for the 2013 fiscal year, which runs from October to September.

The Treasury estimates that the 2013 budget deficit will come in at approximately -$642 billion, well below fiscal 2012’s deficit of -$1.1 trillion. The federal budget has been running deficits over -$1 trillion since 2008.

Employment Market Continues To Strengthen

On Thursday, the Weekly Jobless Claims report brought good news; jobless claims fell from the prior week’s 346,000 jobless claims to 334,000 jobless claims. This was also less than expectations of 350,000 jobless claims. As more workers gain steady employment, this will enable more would-be home buyers to become active buyers.

May Retail sales also showed slight improvement as they moved from 0.60 percent from April’s 0.10 percent.

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the average mortgage rate for a 30year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.91 percent to 3.98 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose from last week’s 3.03 percent to 3.10 percent with discount points holding at 0.70 percent.

What‘s Coming Up This Week

Next week’s economic news schedule has a number of reports due including Wednesday’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s press conference. This meeting and press conference are significant as any move by the Fed to reduce or cease its current quantitative easing (QE) program could cause mortgage rates to rise further.

Monday’s news includes the Home Builders Index for June. Tuesday brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Core CPI, also for May. The indices measure prices paid by consumers for goods and services; the Core CPI eliminates the volatile food and energy sectors included in the CPI. Rising or falling consumer costs influence how much discretionary income consumers have for saving toward buying a home.

No news is scheduled for Wednesday other than the FOMC statement and press conference.

Thursday brings the Existing Home Sales Report, Weekly Jobs Report, Freddie Mac PMMS and Leading Indicators. These reports are expected to provide news about U.S. housing markets, mortgage rates and economic influences impacting consumers.

There is no economic news scheduled for Friday.

3 06, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week — June 3, 2013

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 3, 2013 Last week’s financial news was relatively limited due to the Memorial Day holiday and no economic reports being released on Wednesday.

The biggest news in terms of housing and mortgages was the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Market Indices (HMI) released on Tuesday.

The March HMI data for national housing markets reflected a sharp increase in year-over-year home prices from 9.30 percent in February to 10.90 percent in March.

Twelve cities included in the Case-Shiller 20-city index reported double-digit year-over-year percentage gains for March home prices. While this data strongly supports recovering home prices, analysts cite the need for more jobs, which would enable more consumers to buy homes.

Thursday’s weekly Jobless Claims Report from the Labor Department highlighted ongoing problems with lagging employment as new jobless claims jumped to 354,000. The four-week moving average for new jobless claims increased by 6.75 percent to 347,250 new jobless claims.

Bullish Stock Market Affects Mortgage Interest Rates

Mortgage rates jumped in connection rising stock prices; Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 3.81 percent plus 0.80 percent in discount points. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 2.98 percent plus 0.70 percent in discount points.

Rising mortgage rates suggest that home buyers may benefit from considering hybrid adjustable rate mortgages; the average rate for a 5/1 hybrid ARM was 2.66 percent with 0.50 percent in discount points.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Chicago PMI) measures how manufacturing and related businesses perform on a monthly basis. May’s reading increased to 58.70 and surpassed expectations of a 49.90 reading as well as April’s reading of 49.00. Readings above 50 are considered positive.

Consumer Sentiment rose in May to a reading of 84.50, which exceeded both the expected reading of 83.80 and April’s reading of 83.70. As consumers gain confidence in the economy, they are more likely to buy homes.

Next Week’s News

Construction spending for April is due Monday with a consensus of +1.00 percent as compared to -1.70 percent in March. Rising construction spending could indicate an increase in residential construction, which has been facing obstacles including increasing labor and material costs and a shortage of available land for residential building.

Thursday’s news includes the weekly Jobless Claims report and Freddie Mac’s weekly report of average mortgage rates.

Friday brings the monthly Jobs Report, which consists of the Department of Labor’s Non-farm Payrolls report and the monthly unemployment rate. These reports are significant for gauging national and regional labor markets and for anticipating the Fed’s decision regarding its current quantitative easing policy.

If the Fed ceases or reduces its purchase of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), mortgage rates are likely to rise.

16 04, 2013

Home Builders Hold Great Confidence For New Homes Over Next 6 Months

Home Builder Confidence Positive 6 Month Outlook April 2013 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report for April shows that builder confidence slipped by two points to a rating of 42 from the March reading of 44.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) measures home builder confidence in market conditions for newly built single family homes.

A reading of more than 50 indicates better than average confidence, while readings below 50 indicate that home builders have concerns about current market conditions.

NAHB Housing Market Index Results For April

Home builders expressed concern over a gap between a growing demand for homes and builders’ ability to meet the demand for new homes as housing market conditions improve.

Top concerns cited by home builders surveyed include:

Availability of construction credit
Construction costs rising faster than home values
Restrictive mortgage lending rules impacting would-be home buyers

Supply chains for building materials and available developed lots are also impacting home builder confidence, as they have been lagging behind increasing demand for homes since the recession and will need more time to catch up.

Six Month Confidence Forecast Strongest Since February 2007

While builder confidence fell on a month-to-month basis, home builders have a more positive outlook for the next six months.

The builder confidence reading for the next six months came in at 53 for April, which is the highest reading since February 2007.

In terms of demand for newly built homes, the home builders surveyed said that a shortage of existing homes, low mortgage rates and increasing consumer confidence are expected to improve the market for existing homes.

Consumer confidence is important to all facets of the home building and mortgage lending industries.

Buying a home is typically the largest investment that consumers make, and their confidence in the economy plays a role in their decisions about when or if they buy a home.

Regional readings for housing markets are based on a three month rolling average.

Results for April were unchanged or lower in all four regions as compared to the rolling average reported in March:

Northeast: The reading of 38 is unchanged from March.
Midwest: The reading declined by two points to 45.
South: April’s reading declined by four points to 42
West: April’s reading declined by three points to 55, but remains in positive territory.

Regional readings reflect conditions impacting only a specific area of the U.S.

Recent examples include the impact of Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast, and an ongoing lack of land available for home construction in the West.

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